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On the category of measurable spaces and measurable maps there is a monad D sending (X,ΣX) to the measurable space of probability measures on it, whose unit is given by Dirac measures, and whose multiplication is
DDX→DXdP↦λA.∫DXP(A)dP
This monad has a right 'tensorial strength'
DX×Y→D(X×Y)(dP,y)↦P⊗δy
where ⊗ denotes 'pointwise' product of measures: P⊗Q(A)=P(A)Q(A)
From the right strength we can get a 'closure strength' (enrichment), as explained at [[strong monad]]
EDIT: now I wonder, what do I mean by '→' in the category of measurable spaces? Could I get away with X→Y=∏x∈XY? But then I suspect ev might not even exist...
From now on I'm less sure of the correctness (to address the point above: pretend I'm working in a sufficiently nice category of measurable spaces now, such as qB spaces or Radon spaces or even finite spaces):
There is another map given by taking cartesian products of probability spaces
K:(X→DY)→D(X→Y)(Px)x∈X↦x∈X⨂Px
If all the Px have density (call it px), then such a product measure has density λ(yx)x∈X.∏x∈Xpx(yx) (notice its resemblance to an S combinator!). Otherwise you define by extension of the product measures defined on finite cylinders, see here.
The composite K;σ is the identity. I have a proof of this when X and Y are finite (and 'Y is sober'), and I think it should extend in the same way the product of prob measures extends from finite to infinite products:
σ(K((Px)x∈X))=σ(x∈X⨂Px)=λxˉ.λA.(x∈X⨂(Px)x∈X⊗δxˉ)(ev−1A)=λxˉ.λA.x∈X∏Px(Y if x=xˉ, A otherwiseπxˉ{f∣f(xˉ)∈A})=λxˉ.λA.Pxˉ(A)=(Px)x∈X
Hence K is a section of σ and I don't think it admits a left-inverse too: given an X-indexed family of prob measures on Y, this induces a prob measure on the function space X→Y but the same prob measure could be induced by many different prob measures on X→Y.