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Morgan Rogers (he/him) (Jun 09 2025 at 09:38):In case you thought that France might be taking a positive stance in defence of Palestine on the international stage, the recent rollback of the president considering recognising the state of Palestine has surely dispelled that hope. Within the country, though, things are quietly becoming as oppressive as you have seen them getting elsewhere.
I found out today that last month, a former member of my lab, Pierre Nicodème, returned a CNRS medal of honour he was awarded in 2013 in protest against pressure from the French minister of higher education on the Institut d'études politiques de Strasbourg to maintain a partnership with Université Reichman de Herzliya in Israel after a commission at the former unanimously voted to end it. I share this not just because he did so as a member of a lab I belong to (though this fact does make me a little proud) but because this symbolic act follows several decades of activism on his part that his open letter (in French) describes.
Meanwhile, early this morning the Freedom Flotilla, carrying 12 peaceful international activists and aid to Gaza, was intercepted in international waters by the Israeli military. This itself is a war crime.
Morgan Rogers (he/him) (Jun 09 2025 at 09:38):There has been little discussion of the genocide here on Zulip. It takes courage to publicly condemn what is happening, for fear that we will be punished, professionally or personally. I remember well that when I first started getting involved in activism, it felt like I was timidly shouting into a void.
At the community action meeting during ACT last week I opened with the statement that Science is political. The effects of the crimes that are being committed by Israel and by the governments complicit with Israel are affecting us directly, undermining our intellectual freedom and removing the funds that we need to do our work. We are not helpless! Besides the links in the action meeting minutes above to support students displaced in and outside of Gaza, you can directly act in support of the Freedom Flotilla; now is a critical time to do so. Wherever you are, your government could be doing more. If you've heard someone tell you to Contact Your Representatives and haven't acted on it, this video is a handy general guide.
Mike Shulman (Jun 09 2025 at 10:02):I would have hoped that the reason there has been little discussion of this sort of thing on Zulip is that we recognize that other people may have different political opinions that us, and that there are many appropriate forums for political activism, but that we would like to keep this forum a place for discussion of mathematics, where no one feels excluded because of their politics.
Mike Shulman (Jun 09 2025 at 10:05):I realize this is the "off topic" channel and there is a "mute" button, which I'm probably going to hit in a minute. But there is plenty of non-political stuff in "off topic" that it's reasonable to want to stay subscribed to, and it's uncomfortable to read messages that assume the reader must agree with the author politically, when you don't agree with them.
Morgan Rogers (he/him) (Jun 09 2025 at 10:15):Mike Shulman said:
we would like to keep this forum a place for discussion of mathematics, where no one feels excluded because of their politics.
If "their politics" doesn't recognize someone else's right to exist, their feeling excluded or uncomfortable is the least of my concerns.
Morgan Rogers (he/him) (Jun 09 2025 at 12:17):To respond more constructively: if I can't get you onboard with the Palestinian cause, too bad. But surely @Mike Shulman you too have colleagues and students that are being impacted by Trump's attack on higher education and research, who could stand to benefit from the use of this research community standing together in their defense? Why do you say this is not an appropriate forum for political activism?
Damiano Mazza (Jun 09 2025 at 13:12):I realize this is the "off topic" channel and there is a "mute" button
@Mike Shulman you don't have to mute the entire off-topic channel, you can just mute this particular topic.
@Morgan Rogers (he/him) perhaps you moderators can create a "meta: politics of science" channel, with everyone subscribed by default, and keep all political discussions in there? Personally, I am ok with political activism on this Zulip, but this gives a way of "opting out" for those who are not ok. Creating a specific channel also supports the idea that politics is not off-topic on this forum.
Morgan Rogers (he/him) (Jun 09 2025 at 13:47):Thanks for the suggestion @Damiano Mazza, on reflection #community: discussion is a better place for this topic (even if it doesn't achieve the more active suggestion of displaying that politics can be discussed here!)
Notification Bot (Jun 09 2025 at 13:48):This topic was moved here from #meta: off-topic > Returning a medal, freeing a people by Morgan Rogers (he/him).
James Deikun (Jun 09 2025 at 14:07):I myself wouldn't say I'm on board with the "Palestinian cause" exactly. I'm on board with the "anti-genocide cause" but it seems the Palestinians as a bloc would be more than eager to return the favor if the shoe were on the other foot, so to speak. There's really no states or nations or peoples to root for in this conflict, only individuals. Nonetheless I agree with and support all the specific positions and actions described approvingly in the OP, and condemn all the positions and actions described negatively therein.
James Deikun (Jun 09 2025 at 14:23):I think it's important to make this clear because there has been a lot of muddying the waters on, paradoxically, both sides of this conflict, reinforcing the natural human impression that you have to join the conflict and pick a side and support that side of the conflict in order to even say anything about how it's conducted. Lots of people who would normally see through the smokescreens and be at least in token opposition to the ongoing genocide are persuaded to disbelieve it without examining the actual evidence by the idea that they would be placed in some sort of alliance of convenience with some people who seem obviously unsavory, while the Israelis are better at hiding behind what feels like a much more civilized veneer to Europeans and perhaps especially Anglophones, exploiting the blind spots created by a reluctance to fully acknowledge the more shameful parts of their own histories.
Mike Shulman (Jun 09 2025 at 14:44):Damiano Mazza said:
Mike Shulman you don't have to mute the entire off-topic channel, you can just mute this particular topic.
Yes, that's what I meant. Except, of course, that (as I expected) people @mentioned me and so I got notified even after I muted the topic. (-:O
Mike Shulman (Jun 09 2025 at 15:05):Morgan, what annoyed me was that you didn't even try to get me onboard with the "Palestinian cause". Instead you assumed that anyone reading your message was already onboard with your cause and exhorted us to take action.
At the very least, you could recognize that some people's moral compass may be unimpaired but they are simply uninformed about facts. And then there's a long spectrum stretching from there to being an actively terrible person.
Mike Shulman (Jun 09 2025 at 15:08):Let alone the possibility, minute as it might be, that it might be you who is wrong.
Mike Shulman (Jun 09 2025 at 15:08):Morgan Rogers (he/him) said:
If "their politics" doesn't recognize someone else's right to exist, their feeling excluded or uncomfortable is the least of my concerns.
I hope you'll forgive me saying so, but this comment is almost a caricature of what's wrong with academia today. Millions for DEI, but not one cent for viewpoint diversity. In my darker moments I wonder whether there is no real hope for reform and the only thing to do is burn us all down, as Trump seems intent on doing.
John Baez (Jun 09 2025 at 15:45):There are many large communities of people today who interact mainly with people who agree with themselves on certain issues. So, many people have not figured out a way how to communicate in a way that doesn't presume an agreement on these issues - and many of them don't even want to figure this out.
Here I'm not just talking about the "DEI crowd", but equally the "anti-DEI crowd", and many other crowds, polarized along many different axes.
Luckily I know which of these crowds are right, and which are wrong. But it's not always wise to assume others share my knowledge of the truth, or condemn the ignorant. :wink:
James Deikun (Jun 09 2025 at 15:55):The "their politics" comment may seem somewhat hypocritical, but it's at least equally hypocritical to complain about feeling excluded by someone speaking to those who are on the same page as them politically without recognizing your presence in the audience while also pooh-poohing the movement that promulgated the idea in the first place that making people feel excluded by assuming characteristics of your audience is bad.
Anyway, "DEI" does value viewpoint diversity, the existence of different viewpoints is an important way to learn, but on any particular issue it's only natural and wise to privilege the viewpoint that's more grounded in relevant experience and knowledge. Some people take this privileging of certain viewpoints a little too far as is human nature, but it's not fundamentally wrong.
James Deikun (Jun 09 2025 at 15:56):(However, this whole thread of discussion is sort of a tangent to the original subject, slipping into the meta.)
Nathan Corbyn (Jun 09 2025 at 15:59):Mike Shulman said:
I hope you'll forgive me saying so, but this comment is almost a caricature of what's wrong with academia today. Millions for DEI, but not one cent for viewpoint diversity.
And I hope you’ll forgive me for remarking that the caricature is surely senior academics wheeling out their personal grievances in place of condemning (or even acknowledging) an ongoing genocide with official death toll >60,000.
Fabrizio Romano Genovese (Jun 10 2025 at 08:16):First of all, yes, I too think that what Israel is doing at the moment is very wrong. Having cleared this out, my 2cents: Why do you want to argue? This is a place for mathematics. There are many people with very different political opinions here and the kind of thing that makes a place like this work is _precisely_ acknowledging that, in the interest of everyone, it is better _not_ to engage in political discussion. I myself am guilty of having done this in the past and caused quite the shitstorm multiple times. I regretted that every single time this happened.
...Having considered all this, you decided to pick literally one of the most polarizing political issues of the last years. I see no way this can end well. This is not activism, is begging for a digital brawl to happen.
My golden rule about the current Israel-Palestine situation is to _never_ talk about the matter with either Israeli or Palestinian people. Every single time I did I've ben accused of either not backing the Palestinian cause enough, and hence of being a fascist, or of being sympathetic with a bunch of terrorists, hence being a terrorist myself. All this, pretty much always, happened with a lot of insults and shouting in the process. It really degenerates very quickly. So yes, call me a coward or whatever but I consciously decide not to engage in this type of conversations with the people I work with. I think it's much more productive to do it in my free time, with other people, and in a way that doesn't terribly backfire in my working activity.
So let me ask again: Why do you want to argue? People in the west are almost throwing Molotov cocktails at each other because of this issue. I really hoped we could shield this place from this sort of degeneration for once.
Morgan Rogers (he/him) (Jun 10 2025 at 08:20):Sorry for not responding sooner, I was out protesting.
@Mike Shulman said:
Morgan, what annoyed me was that you didn't even try to get me onboard with the "Palestinian cause". Instead you assumed that anyone reading your message was already onboard with your cause and exhorted us to take action.
At the very least, you could recognize that some people's moral compass may be unimpaired but they are simply uninformed about facts.
Even if you pretended to be completely ignorant of current affairs, this is a blatant mischaracterisation of the OP. I included relevant information about recent events, most notably the detention of the activists on board the Freedom Flotilla both in the post and via links to material containing further information.
Let alone the possibility, minute as it might be, that it might be you who is wrong.
It's unclear what you're suggesting I might be wrong about here. Wrong to use the influence I have to try to convince people that doing something is better than doing nothing?
Morgan Rogers (he/him) (Jun 10 2025 at 08:26):Fabrizio Romano Genovese said:
It is better _not_ to engage in political discussion. I myself am guilty of having done this in the past and caused quite the shitstorm multiple times. I regretted that every single time this happened.
A political discussion doesn't have to become a shitstorm. This is an asynchronous, text-based medium. In most cases, there is time to think things over before responding (although I was guilty of not taking that time in my first response). It's true that some discussions you've been involved in have become heated in the past @Fabrizio Romano Genovese, but I don't feel that the community as a whole has lost out because those discussions were allowed to happen.
Fabrizio Romano Genovese (Jun 10 2025 at 08:27):Morgan Rogers (he/him) said:
Fabrizio Romano Genovese said:
It is better _not_ to engage in political discussion. I myself am guilty of having done this in the past and caused quite the shitstorm multiple times. I regretted that every single time this happened.
A political discussion doesn't have to become a shitstorm. This is an asynchronous, text-based medium. In most cases, there is time to think things over before responding (although I was guilty of not taking that time in my first response). It's true that some discussions you've been involved in have become heated in the past Fabrizio Romano Genovese, but I don't feel that the community as a whole has lost out because those discussions were allowed to happen.
I bet a beer and a dinner you'll deeply regret to have started this topic within a few days. I can venmo the payment or whatever if we don't happen to meet soon.
Morgan Rogers (he/him) (Jun 10 2025 at 08:29):James Deikun said:
I myself wouldn't say I'm on board with the "Palestinian cause" exactly. I'm on board with the "anti-genocide cause" ... Nonetheless I agree with and support all the specific positions and actions described approvingly in the OP
While it is tempting to argue about the history or the semantics, the will to act to save people is more important. Thank you James.
fosco (Jun 10 2025 at 08:42):A political discussion doesn't have to become a shitstorm.
...How little time have you spent on the internet so far?
Any discussion whatsoever, irregardless of topic, eventually becomes a shitstorm.
fosco (Jun 10 2025 at 08:42):fosco said:
A political discussion doesn't have to become a shitstorm.
...How little time have you spent on the internet so far?
Any discussion whatsoever, irregardless of topic, eventually becomes a shitstorm.
(which is the only thing I'm going to say here, bye)
Patrick Nicodemus (Jun 10 2025 at 16:34):Pierre Nicodeme
Huh. Wonder if there's any relation.
Morgan Rogers (he/him) (Jun 13 2025 at 15:09):In case you heard the news of military theatrics in the Middle East today, please do not be distracted from the continuing genocide happening in Gaza: distraction is the goal. There are still things you can do. For anyone in Paris, I will be at Place de la République tomorrow. Send me a message if you want to meet me there, especially if you have hesitated to join in with protests in the past.
Todd Trimble (Jun 14 2025 at 03:22):I hope the French police would be there to oversee that the protest remains peaceful, and not indiscriminately make use of rubber bullets, flash bang grenades, tear gas and pepper spray, etc.
Here in the US, Trump's administration is going over the head of California's governor and bringing in the National Guard and the Marines to the LA protests (against the mass scale sweep-up and spiriting away of undocumented immigrants), in a blatant show of intimidation. I expect this is a trial run, and they'll soon ratchet up the military presence to include other cities.
Morgan Rogers (he/him) (Jun 14 2025 at 06:33):That's also something you can stand up against today in particular (June 14th). There are over 1800 actions planned across the US today. Good luck out there.
John Baez (Jun 14 2025 at 08:17):I would celebrate No Kings Day from here in Edinburgh, but it would mean something different here, and while I'm no royalist I'm not eager to get involved in that argument here. Instead I'm just doing my best to stoke No Kings Day on Mastodon.
Amar Hadzihasanovic (Jun 14 2025 at 10:10):Morgan Rogers (he/him) said:
In case you heard the news of military theatrics in the Middle East today, please do not be distracted from the continuing genocide happening in Gaza: distraction is the goal.
I think that is a bit simplistic, and that if we care at all about academics in the Middle East, it seems to be quite a big deal that in Iran, being an academic who wants to work on peaceful nuclear energy is likely to get you murdered by Mossad terrorists.
Todd Trimble (Jun 14 2025 at 11:02):Amar Hadzihasanovic said:
Morgan Rogers (he/him) said:
In case you heard the news of military theatrics in the Middle East today, please do not be distracted from the continuing genocide happening in Gaza: distraction is the goal.
I think that is a bit simplistic, and that if we care at all about academics in the Middle East, it seems to be quite a big deal that in Iran, being an academic who wants to work on peaceful nuclear energy is likely to get you murdered by Mossad terrorists.
I surely expect that distraction is part of the point here. The phrase used all the time here in the US to describe what Trump et al. are doing is "flooding the zone". It's a US football expression, but here it means waging attacks on so many different fronts that the opponent is overwhelmed and distracted and can't properly focus on which to address.
My impression is that Netanyahu may be appropriating this concept as well.
Amar Hadzihasanovic (Jun 14 2025 at 11:25):Oh absolutely it is part of a distraction on Netanyahu's part, but the video linked by Morgan implied that the Iranian regime was a kind of “willing participant” because Israeli attacks rally people around the flag and allow them to keep repressing internal dissent.
Amar Hadzihasanovic (Jun 14 2025 at 11:27):I think beyond the “distraction” there is a clear component of trying to derail the normalisation of US-Iran relations.
Amar Hadzihasanovic (Jun 14 2025 at 11:31):(Ironically, because of the “unique” characteristics of Trump, I do genuinely believe that he could lead the subversion of some long-running staples of US foreign policy, and that Netanyahu is also acting on that suspicion...)
Amar Hadzihasanovic (Jun 14 2025 at 11:35):Anyway, this is probably not the place for this discussion. Just want to say that I believe “normalisation” is what most Iranians want, that they have used all the democratic space they have to get there---their latest presidental election was as much an “outsider” slipping through the cracks as it could be---and that this Israeli attack is ultimately an attack on normalisation and on the Iranian people, it's not just “theatre” and it has real consequences.
Fabrizio Romano Genovese (Jun 14 2025 at 11:39):My only advice is "please do not listen to self-proclaimed geopolitics experts making videos from their kitchen." This person makes Peter Zeihan look competent, and that's a very difficult achievement. Notably, the idea that "we're already in WWIII since the end of WWII, and wars will never look like that again with two entities of equal power matching up" is ludicrous. It contradicts what happened from 1947-1991 pretty much directly, and it also ignores the huge naval military progress that China is making, which is something that's keeping all geopolitical analysts busy as of late.
Fabrizio Romano Genovese (Jun 14 2025 at 11:40):In general the idea that "leaders of nations hating each other long before they were even born de facto agree and conspire with each other to consolidate power" is peak paranoid delirium.
Amar Hadzihasanovic (Jun 14 2025 at 12:30):Fabrizio Romano Genovese said:
In general the idea that "leaders of nations hating each other long before they were even born de facto agree and conspire with each other to consolidate power" is peak paranoid delirium.
Well, Netanyahu has provedly been propping up Hamas, so it's not total nonsense in the context of his character; but I think he's an exception in truly embodying the "Machiavellian" personality type
Amar Hadzihasanovic (Jun 14 2025 at 12:31):(With apologies to Machiavelli who doesn't deserve to be associated with the personality type)
Fabrizio Romano Genovese (Jun 14 2025 at 12:45):Amar Hadzihasanovic said:
Fabrizio Romano Genovese said:
In general the idea that "leaders of nations hating each other long before they were even born de facto agree and conspire with each other to consolidate power" is peak paranoid delirium.
Well, Netanyahu has provedly been propping up Hamas, so it's not total nonsense in the context of his character; but I think he's an exception in truly embodying the "Machiavellian" personality type
The thing I reject is the paranoid projection that these people are in agreement. It is absolutely true that Netanyahu is using this Iran situation - and also the Gaza situation btw - to distract the public opinion from his own problems. Before all this stuff started in 2023 his political career was failing and he was to stand accusation of corruption and other crimes, so yes, all this has been a total political blessing for him and he's propping it up. This is something that even many people agreeing with Israel on the Gaza situation openly recognize. Yet, this doesn't mean that the hate between Iran and Israel isn't completely genuine, and the idea that the two countries - or their leaders thereof - could willingly 'do each other a favor' really means not understanding a thing about how geopolitics - and anthropology itself, actually - works
Amar Hadzihasanovic (Jun 14 2025 at 13:00):Agreed, I did not mean it in terms of "doing each other a favour", rather like "propping up an opponent that is more radical but perceived as less effective"
Amar Hadzihasanovic (Jun 14 2025 at 13:08):(Also from everything I've seen, including from travelling through Iran, I do think the idea of a widespread "sentiment" behind the Iran-Israel conflict is largely made up, at least on the Iranian side; don't know enough about Israelis)
Amar Hadzihasanovic (Jun 14 2025 at 13:10):Certainly anti-Arab sentiment is way more common, lol
Morgan Rogers (he/him) (Jun 15 2025 at 10:54):Thanks for engaging with the video I linked, folks! To the point you were contesting @Amar Hadzihasanovic : it is clear that civilian casualties are no longer even a pretend concern of the parties involved. I don't think that the leaders of Iran somehow agreed to be attacked. I also don't think I believe that relations with the US had moved very far in a positive direction, but to the extent that they had I agree that it undermines those positive steps.
The feature of that video that I do agree with is the idea we should stop identifying states with the people living under them. I don't think the video was as conspiratorial as you make it out to be @Fabrizio Romano Genovese : the point made was that the leaders have a lot less to lose than the civilian victims of the wars they are waging.
The attack on Iran has been successful in drawing media attention away from Gaza, but more frustratingly it has given leaders in the EU an excuse to fall back to a supportive position that "Israel has a right to defend itself"-- in spite of there being no evidence presented on the international stage that there was anything to defend themselves from that these attacks could have been provoked by. That represents days, possibly longer, of further inaction, which when people are starving in Gaza means hundreds more deaths, in addition to the needless victims of the ongoing missile exchanges between Israel and Iran.
Yesterday in Paris, tens of thousands of people showed up to protest against the state's complicity in the genocide. Here's the statue in Place de la République. There are more protests today, in Paris and across the world. Join in if you can. Stay safe out there.
Amar Hadzihasanovic (Jun 15 2025 at 14:52):I'm sorry but "the leaders have a lot less to lose" seems like a thought-terminating cliché in this context, a bit like enemies being axiomatically "cowards". I think it certainly applies to Starmer and Macron and Trump and all other western leaders meddling while not really risking anything in their own countries, but it sounds simply ridiculous in reference to Iran where the open strategy pursued by Israel is murdering political, scientific, and military leaders.
Amar Hadzihasanovic (Jun 15 2025 at 14:53):Even Netanyahu probably ends up in jail if the wars stop, he has a lot to lose! To point is not whether he has or hasn't anything to lose, it's whether he should...
John Baez (Jun 15 2025 at 15:15):Indeed I suspect Netanyahu has a lot to lose if these wars stop, which is probably one reason he's pursuing them.
Morgan Rogers (he/him) (Jun 15 2025 at 16:30):Amar Hadzihasanovic said:
I'm sorry but "the leaders have a lot less to lose" seems like a thought-terminating cliché in this context, a bit like enemies being axiomatically "cowards"... it sounds simply ridiculous in reference to Iran where the open strategy pursued by Israel is murdering political, scientific, and military leaders.
I suspect your reaction is a result of me mistakenly using the preposition "of" rather than "in" later in the sentence you quoted? I agree that the leaders in question have a lot to lose generally speaking (by virtue of being in power, even before considering criminal charges); I was specifically talking with regard to going to war. In the words of my wife's Iranian colleague "In the end people of Iran are going to pay, not the government".
Fabrizio Romano Genovese (Jun 15 2025 at 16:37):I'm pretty sure a lot of Iranian government officials are going to be dead (either killed by the IdF or by their own regime) if they end up losing this war
Morgan Rogers (he/him) (Jun 17 2025 at 08:34):Yep I was definitely wrong to defend the position that there would be a benefit to the Iranian regime. Thanks for calling it out @Amar Hadzihasanovic . Please feel emboldened to call out propaganda defending Israel's actions wherever you get the opportunity to.
Fabrizio Romano Genovese (Jun 17 2025 at 08:35):Morgan Rogers (he/him) said:
Please feel emboldened to call out propaganda defending Israel's actions wherever you get the opportunity to.
This amounts to calling out 95% of the western mainstream media ATM
Morgan Rogers (he/him) (Jun 17 2025 at 08:36):No one said it would be easy :smiling_face_with_tear:
Fabrizio Romano Genovese (Jun 17 2025 at 08:42):In any case, this thing will all turn very ugly very soon. The Gaza situation is an appalling humanitarian crisis, but this is on a whole different level, as it really goes as close to WWIII as we can possibly go atm.
The problem is not Iran per sé, but the fact that Iran has very strong ties with both Russia and China, and both these countries will be definitely very unhappy if they lose an strong ally in the middle east. There are many possible scenarios here but the most interesting ones to play with are the ones where Iran is badly defeated (e.g. total collapse of regime followed by western-friendly/puppet government). Should this happen, all cards are on the table. If there's even a speckle of a provable hint by the United States to Israel things will become exponentially worse, if there isn't it is likely someone will work hard to fabricate one. In any case, Russia is already very overstretched and it was actually counting on Iranian drones for the Ukrainian campaign, so I wouldn't expect too much from them in the immediate. On the other end, China is a completely different game. They already declared in the past that an USA attack on Iran would prompt them to declare war on the USA, for instance. In any case, the MENA map could get redrawn by pulling countries such as UAE much closer to Russia and China than they are now (I don't know how much this is likely tbh), but most importantly, this may be the kind of situation that emboldens China enough to try something on Taiwan.
Fabrizio Romano Genovese (Jun 17 2025 at 08:43):Basically the uncertainty cone just became 4 order of magnitudes wider and any reasonable geopolitical analyst will probably agree that "I don't know what the F is going to happen from now on but I bet a beer that it will be bad, probably very very bad."
Fabrizio Romano Genovese (Jun 17 2025 at 08:47):I can't believe I'm saying this but this is the kind of situation where the USA - and a big part of the world - would benefit from having a huge piece of shit like Kissinger shaping strategy. What scares me the most is that almost the entire chain of command in the USA atm is made by incompetents or idiots. These people can be damaging in times of peace but they turn into an authentic calamity in times like this. With maybe the exception of China so far, there's an awful stench of short-sightedness in almost all the decisions being taken by world superpowers atm...
James Deikun (Jun 17 2025 at 11:36):The fact that the US is protecting Israel from retaliation via missiles has already got to look like a good excuse to anyone with a sufficiently itchy trigger finger...
Morgan Rogers (he/him) (Jun 17 2025 at 16:20):Re strategy @Fabrizio Romano Genovese it seems to me that convincing our representatives to definitively cut ties (and cut their losses) with Israel would be a way to de-escalate the situation?
Kevin Carlson (Jun 17 2025 at 17:06):Fabrizio Romano Genovese said:
They already declared in the past that an USA attack on Iran would prompt them to declare war on the USA
Did they really? That sounds more explicit than I would have expected.
Fabrizio Romano Genovese (Jun 17 2025 at 17:25):Morgan Rogers (he/him) said:
Re strategy Fabrizio Romano Genovese it seems to me that convincing our representatives to definitively cut ties (and cut their losses) with Israel would be a way to de-escalate the situation?
I don't know. Up to now they are making a lot of enemies worldwide but they don't seem to be caring too much. I think we have to also be careful about what 'cutting ties' means.
Case 1: Cutting diplomatic ties
First a factoid no one will ever say out loud: the real, main reason why the US (and the west in general) have kept backing Israel for a long time is twofold. The most important one is that we need a strong ally in the MENA region. One may even argue that Israel, as a state, was created with this purpose in mind (in my opinion the story of giving this and that to the holocaust survivors etc is a nice front but really not something with any meaning if you are a geopolitical realist).
The second is that esp in the US there are many people in positions of power that are very supportive of the Zionist cause for ideological and/or ethnic reasons.
As we all know it happened many times already that Israel did something that was very hard to back up/not condemn for everyone in the west, yet support was never withdrawn precisely because of the reasons above. I don't know how much pressuring MPs to push for cutting ties would work. If they're ideologically aligned with Israel there is no hope. If they are realist enough they could put Raison d'Etat before the humanitarian crisis in any case.
In any case, if the cutting off is purely diplomatic I don't know how much Israel will care. They don't seem to be giving many Fs about how the world perceives them atm to be honest with you.
Case 2: Cutting military and diplomatic ties
This is interesting. Until recently, everyone used to believe that Israel without US support couldn't do anything militarily meaningful in the MENA region. But the current situation with Iran is prompting many people to rethink the situation. I do not really know how dependent on US help Israel is regarding their campaign in Gaza. I'm tempted to say 'probably not much' but I don't have any data in regard to this. If my gut feeling is right, US help wouldn't mean much militarily, and so wouldn't cutting ties. Also, not receiving US help does not mean not being able to buy weapons on the free market, which brings us to the last case:
Case 3: Cutting ties for real: embargo and the like
This is the nuclear option. An embargo or something like that of course would be a very very VERY different thing. Israel is a small state and if they can't even buy stuff from the US/the west they're basically done. This would for sure change the situation wrt Gaza, but it could also have the unintended consequence of wiping Israel off the map (it is surrounded by states that aren't much better and that wouldn't hesitate for long to invade it should an embargo like this be enforced). This is a price no one in their sane mind in the Western centers of power wants to pay, and I consider this happening pure sci-fi currently, just to be completely clear.
Fabrizio Romano Genovese (Jun 17 2025 at 17:29):Kevin Carlson said:
Fabrizio Romano Genovese said:
They already declared in the past that an USA attack on Iran would prompt them to declare war on the USA
Did they really? That sounds more explicit than I would have expected.
I'll see if I can find a reference. I remember this quite clearly, and most importantly I remember being seriously surprised by their answer as you are now. China usually is much less direct than this in their diplomatic relations.
Fabrizio Romano Genovese (Jun 17 2025 at 17:30):Jesus is really hard to google this kind of stuff in the current situation, all results are very fresh :lol:
Fabrizio Romano Genovese (Jun 17 2025 at 17:34):In 2011, the group Green Experts of Iran reported that Beijing and Tehran had signed a deal that would give China exclusive rights to several Iranian oil and natural gas fields through 2024, including rights to build necessary infrastructure there. In return, China promised to treat any foreign attack against these regions as attacks against its own sovereign territory, and will defend them as such. China would need no prior permission from Iran's government to maintain and increase its military presence in the country, and would control the movement of Iranians in and out of these territories.[66] This agreement was the basis for PLA General Zhang Zhaozhong stating, “China will not hesitate to protect Iran even with a Third World War.”[67]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Iran_relations
Fabrizio Romano Genovese (Jun 17 2025 at 17:35):Probably not strong as I remembered, but still quite strong.
John Baez (Jun 17 2025 at 17:48):Now Trump has demanded "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!" from Iran (on Truth Social, which is a joke). There's no way Iran is going to unconditionally surrender at this point in time - and the US hasn't even declared war on Iran, so is he asking them to surrender to Israel?
Fabrizio Romano Genovese (Jun 17 2025 at 18:49):Maybe? I stopped trying to divine Trump's words long ago. I may stand better chances with augury at this point.
John Baez (Jun 17 2025 at 21:00):Sure, he devalues his own speech by being so erratic. By now "TACO" is a widely used acronym for "Trump Always Chickens Out".
Kevin Carlson (Jun 17 2025 at 22:52):Fabrizio Romano Genovese said:
Jesus is really hard to google this kind of stuff in the current situation, all results are very fresh :lol:
I've often noticed it's basically impossible to Google news that's not brand new. Looks like they've only explicitly committed to war if their particular cut-outs are attacked, but yes, that's really exceptionally strong wording. Thanks for digging it up.
Morgan Rogers (he/him) (Jun 21 2025 at 16:28):There was a great protest today in the outskirts of Paris (specifically from Bobigny), marching in the direction of a biennial air show at Le Bourget. The police didn't let us get within a kilometre of the venue, of course, but we still carried with us the message that the participation of arms merchants from Israel in that event was yet another piece of evidence of France's ongoing complicity in the genocide in Gaza and the war on Iran. If anything similar was happening in your city this weekend, I would love to hear about it!